Jan 18, 2026

According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects , growth in the Sub-Saharan Africa region is expected to rebound to 4.3% in 2026, from the estimated growth rate of 4.0% recorded in 2025 mainly attributable to the easing inflationary policies, ongoing reforms in some countries, improved fiscal support and domestic investment growth.

However, the projections remain subject to key downward risks such as:

• If trade barriers and related uncertainty increase further, adverse shifts in trade policy may slow global growth, reduce demand for commodities like minerals and metals, and particularly affect countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, and South Africa
• Persistent global inflationary pressures, which may lead to the deterioration of financial conditions in the region and high cost of living due to the high prices necessitating aggressive policy rate hikes in the region,
• The high debt levels in the region as borrowing persists in the region due to the ever-present fiscal deficits and high debt-servicing costs in the region, especially due to reduced donor support, high long-term interest rates and limited fiscal headroom, and,
• Further rise in global or regional instability, such as the possible escalation of the conflict in Sudan and DRC, which could heighten humanitarian emergencies and growing food insecurity, potentially affecting other nations.

In Nigeria, the region's largest economy, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.4% in 2026 from an estimated 4.2% in 2025. This improvement is attributed to increased non-oil sector activity, particularly in agriculture and services, supported by reforms to address structural economic challenges. Additionally, growth in South Africa is expected to increase slightly to 1.4% in 2026, from the estimated growth of 1.3% in 2025. The growth in South Africa is attributable to growth in private consumption and investment driven by ongoing reforms in the business environment and the public sector. However, growth in the region is expected to be hampered by the high debt levels, rising trade barriers and uncertainty, slow reform implementation, persistent or worsening conflicts, intensified weather shocks, declining development assistance, weaker global growth, falling commodity prices, as well as the increased cases of corruption in the region as indicated by the Corruption Perceptions Index. Growth in the Eastern African region is expected to remain subdued due to the witnessed political clashes in Sudan, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, coupled with persistent unfavourable weather conditions which continue to stifle agricultural production.

The table below highlights the real GDP forecasts of select Sub - Saharan Africa countries;

Data Source: World Bank