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Recent Topicals

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Ghana’s Debt Restructuring

Jan 8, 2023

Debt sustainability has been a cause for concern within the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region and has been aggravated by a slow post pandemic recovery, elevated inflationary pressures and a backdrop of depreciating currencies in 2022. According to the Joint World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) as of September 2022, eight countries in the region are identified as in debt distress while 14 are at high risk of debt distress, and 16 at moderate risks of debt distress. Additionally, according to the Bloomberg Global default risk index 2022,  for the SSA countries, Ghana and Kenya are ranked 1...

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Kenya Macro Economic Review

Jan 2, 2023

      Economic Growth The Kenyan economy recorded an average growth of 5.6% in the period between January to September 2022, with Q3’2022 GDP coming in at 4.7%, adding to the 5.2% and 6.8% growth recorded in Q2’2022 and Q1’2022, respectively. The average GDP growth of 5.6% marked a decline from the 7.7% average growth recorded in a similar period in 2021. The growth in Q3’2022 was largely driven by the non-agricultural sectors, with accommodation and food, wholesale and retail trade, professional administrative and support, and finance and insurance sectors recording growths of 22.9%, 9.1%, 8.7%, and 5.3%, respectively, in Q3’2022, albeit slower than growth of 127.5%, 6.4%, 13.4%, and 11.8%, respectively recorded in Q3’2021. The growths in these sectors were supported by continued post COVID-19 economy recovery due to l...

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Hustler Fund in Kenya

Dec 26, 2022

As highlighted in our topical on Private Sector Credit Growth, Kenya’s domestic credit extended to private sector as a percentage of GDP was at 32.1% in 2020, compared to the 38.9% average for the Sub-Saharan African region, 111.2% for South Africa and 164.2% for advanced economies, highlighting the gap in credit availability for businesses. To achieve 100.0% Private Sector Credit to GDP, Kenya needs total credit to private sector of Kshs 12.1 tn, current credit to private sector is Kshs 3.4 tn, hence the current Kshs 8.7 tn deficit in credit to the private sector. The Hustler fund, if sustainable, at Kshs 50.0 bn, would only resolve 0.6% of the problem. The graph below shows domestic credit extended to the private sector over the years; Source: World Bank In 2020,

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Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Progress in Kenya

Dec 18, 2022

Kenya's Real Estate sector contribution to GDP has grown exponentially in recent years, expanding at a CAGR of 6.2% over the past five years. Some of the factors that have driven the upward performance of the Real Estate sector include; i) Rapid population growth and urbanization, ii) rapid expansion drive by both local and international retailers which boosts the performance of the retail sector, iii) reopening and expansion of the hospitality sector on the back of economic recovery, coupled  with the improved investor confidence in the sector, iv) high investor appetite for Mixed Use Developments (MUDs) owing to their convenience, and, v) efforts to improve infrastructure across the country which further opening up various locations for investment.  Despite this, the sector’s performance has been weighed down by a couple of challenges over the recent years such as the onset of the COVID-...

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Kenya Listed Banks Q3’2022 Report

Dec 11, 2022

Following the release of the Q3’2022 results by Kenyan listed banks, the Cytonn Financial Services Research Team undertook an analysis on the financial performance of the listed banks and identified the key factors that shaped the performance of the sector. For the earnings notes of the various banks, click the links below: Equity Group Q3’2022 Earnings Note; KCB Group Q3’2022 Earnings Note; Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Q3’2022 Earnings Note; ABSA Bank Kenya Q3’2022 Earnings Note;

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