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Recent Topicals

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Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Review

Apr 6, 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa Region Review According to the World Bank, the Sub-Saharan economy is projected to grow at a moderate rate of 4.1% in 2025, which is 0.9% higher than the 3.2% growth estimate recorded in 2024. The expected recovery is primarily driven by private consumption growth as declining inflation boosts the purchasing power of household incomes. Nevertheless, the risk of debt distress remains high with more than half of countries facing unsustainable debt burdens. The public debt is expected to remain high due to increased debt servicing costs as a result of continued currency depreciation and high interest rates in developed economies. Additionally, many countries are providing subsidies in order to mitigate inflationary pressures, which could worsen public finance, increase public debt, and weigh do...

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Global Markets Review

Apr 6, 2025

Global Economic Growth: According to the World Bank the global economy is projected to grow at 2.7% in 2025, matching the 2.7% recorded in 2024. This forecast marks a slight upward revision from earlier projections, reflecting economic recovery, particularly for emerging markets. The World Bank’s growth projection is 0.6% points lower than the IMF’s 2025 forecast of 3.3%. However, recent developments indicate that some central banks, such as those in the United States and England, have begun to cut interest rates in response to easing inflat...

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The Private Sector Credit Growth

Mar 30, 2025

The private sector contributes significantly to Kenya's economic growth, with increased access to credit driving real GDP expansion. Credit availability is essential for businesses to expand, innovate, and stay competitive.  Recent data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that credit to the private sector contracted by 1.4% as of December 2024, reflecting the impact of exchange rate valuation effects on foreign currency-denominated loans due to the Shilling's appreciation, along with decreased demand driven by high lending interest rates. As the government aims to reduce its fiscal deficit, fostering a supportive environment for private sector growth, especially for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), will be crucial for increasing revenue collection. Achieving this requires policy reforms to strengthen the credit ma...

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The Kenyan National Social Security Fund (NSSF)

Mar 23, 2025

National Social Security schemes are created by governments to form the first pillar of social security. In Africa, Kenya was the second country after Ghana to form a national security scheme, The National Social Security Fund (NSSF), done in 1965 through an Act of Parliament (Cap 258). It is a provident fund, which provides benefits to retiring members as a lump sum rather than through periodic payments. In recent years, discussions around the growth and reform of the NSSF have gained momentum, with key considerations on how to increase coverage, especially for the informal sector, and improve service delivery. As such, we saw it fit to cover a topical on the Kenyan National Social Security Fund to shed light on the financials, recent developments and provide recommendations to improve efficiency. We shall do this by taking a look into the following; Introduction to the National Social Security Fund, Financial Performan...

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Retirement Benefits Schemes Q4’2024 Performance Report

Mar 16, 2025

According to the ACTSERV Q4’2024 Pension Schemes Investments Performance Survey, the five-year average return for segregated schemes over the period 2020 to 2024 was 4.5% with the performance fluctuating over the years to a high of 13.2% in Q4’2024 and a low of 0.7% in Q4’2021 reflective of the markets performance. Notably, segregated retirement benefits scheme q/q returns increased to a 13.2% return in Q4’2024, up from the 3.1% gain recorded in Q4’2023. The y/y growth in overall returns was largely driven by the 18.7% points increase in returns from Equities to 15.7% from a loss of 3.0% in Q4’2023 attributable to the increased corporate earnings and attractive valuations as well as the 13.3% gain from fixed income. The performance was however weighed down by the 17.2% points decline in the Offshore returns to 0.8%, from 18.0% in Q4’2023 majorly attributable to the uncertainty about...

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